Further Comparisons of Empirical and Epidemiological Data with Predictions of the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model for Lead in Children

Abstract

Observed blood lead levels for young children from several communities are compared with blood lead levels predicted for those communities using the USEPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model. In contrast to the compari sons described elsewhere, the blood lead levels observed in the communities con sidered here are not well represented by the model's predictions. The model's predictions for Midvale, UT; Sandy, UT; Cincinnati, OH; and a recent data set for Palmerton, PA, show considerable deviation from observation both for the geometric mean blood lead level and the percent of blood lead levels above 10 µg/dL. Various adjustments in the model to consider play area soils, site specific geometric standard deviations and the time children spend away from their homes do not substantially improve the comparisons to observation. It is difficult to predict a priori the data sets for which the model will yield adequate predictions. This reduces the value of the model for use in communities where blood lead measurements have not been made, and suggests that caution should be exercised when using the model to set soil lead cleanup levels or to predict the result of remediation.

Keywords:

• lead
• blood lead
• exposure
• models.