Axes of Extrapolation in Risk Assessment

Abstract

Extrapolation in risk assessment involves the use of data and information to estimate or predict something that has not been measured or observed. Reasons for extrapolation include that the number of combinations of environmental stressors and possible receptors is too large to characterize risks comprehensively, that direct characterization is sometimes impossible, and that the power to characterize risk in a particular situation can be enhanced by using information obtained in other similar situations. Three types of extrapolation are common in risk assessments: biological (including between taxa and across levels of biological organization), temporal, and spatial. They can be thought of conceptually as the axes of a 3-dimensional graph defining the state space of biological, temporal, and spatial scales within which extrapolations are made. Each of these types of extrapolation can introduce uncertainties into risk assessments. Such uncertainties may be reduced through synergistic research facilitated by the sharing of methods, models, and data used by human health and ecological scientists

Keywords:

• extrapolation
• uncertainty
• risk assessment.