An Objective Uncertainty Factor Adjustment for Methyl mercury Pharmacokinetic Variability

Abstract

While default uncertainty factor (UF) adjustments have been proposed for pharmacokinetic variability in the derivation of Reference Doses (RfDs), few attempts have been made to derive chemical-specific UFs for such variability. In recent epidemiologic data on the neuro-developmental effects of MeHg, Hg concentration in either hair or blood is the point-of-departure for RfD derivation. The application of a pharmacokinetic model to derive an intake dose from the measured biomarker concentration allows examination of the inter-individual variability in the relationship between intake dose and biomarker concentration through specification of the variability in model parameters. Three independent studies of this variability, using different models and/or different parameter values, are compared. While differences in central tendency estimates give different predictions of the intake dose corresponding to a given biomarker concentration, normalization of the central tendency estimate resulted in strong agreement among the studies. Starting with Hg concentration in hair or blood, and dividing a central tendency estimate of the corresponding intake dose by a UF of 2 to 3, accounts for 95 to 99% of the variability in the relationship between intake dose and biomarker concentration. This variability, however, encompasses only a portion of the maternal ingestion-to-fetal brain pathway. It is therefore likely that this UF underestimates the overall pharmacokinetic variability in this pathway.

Keywords:

• mercury
• methylmercury
• pharmacokientic variability
• toxicokentic variability
• Reference Dose
• RfD
• uncertainty factor
• UF
• biomarkers
• Monte Carlo.