Weight-of-Evidence (WOE): Quantitative Estimation of Probability of Impairment for Individual and Multiple Lines of Evidence

Abstract

Environmental decision-making is complex and often based on multiple lines of evidence. Integrating the information from these multiple lines of evidence is rarely a simple process. We present a quantitative approach to the combination of multiple lines of evidence through calculation of weight-of-evidence, with reference conditions used to define a not impaired state. The approach is risk-based with measurement of risk computed as the probability of impairment. When data on reference conditions are available, there are a variety of methods for calculating this probability. Statistical theory and the use of odds ratios provide a method for combining the measures of risk from the different lines of evidence. The approach is illustrated using data from the Great Lakes to predict the risk at potentially contaminated sites.

Keywords:

• Bayesian statistics
• odds ratio
• hazard ranking
• combining information
• risk assessment
• reference conditions.