Combining government, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination in optimal control COVID-19

ABSTRACT

This study reviews the scope of scientific literature to convey extensive multi-factor studies for recognizing various government and behavioral interventions in controlling the COVID-19 globally to determine the extent and nature of these interventions. We provide a novel theory and formula for contingency action based on the COVID-19 Sine Wave points to control the pandemic. Rather than telling policy-makers what to do, the theory tells them what to do at any given time. It emphasizes the importance of time in managing a contagious disease like COVID-19, which is the novelty and difference between this article and others. In this regard, the novel Sine Wave Contingency-Point Interventions (SWCPI) Model is presented. We propose a model that predicts the path of epidemics and evaluates the impact of various strategies to curb the spread of infection. This model includes government interventions [(GI: quarantine, large traffic restrictions, Law enforcement, (LES: logistic, economic and security supports)] and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs: washing hands, use of face mask, social distancing, local traffic restriction, and suitable air condition) and urban health interventions (4T: Timing, Testing, Tracing and Treatment). If these contingency interventions are implemented seriously and regularly, it could control the COVID-19 and flatten the subsequent waves.

KEYWORDS:

• Contingency-point intervention
• COVID-19 pandemic
• modeling
• non-pharmaceutical interventions
• policy-making

Acknowledgments

We offer our sincere thanks to four anonymous reviewers in this Journal for commenting on earlier versions of this paper. Dr. Farshid Rezaei, an expert in surveillance and emerging disease, CDC of Iran, deserves our thanks for valuable comments.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article.

Notes on contributors

Hamid Bohloli

Dr Hamid Bohloli is a visiting professor of public policy at the Faculty of Law and Political Science and the Faculty of Management, University of Tehran. Dr Bohloli is a theorist in social policy and evolution and innovated two novel hypotheses of “Social energy” and “Metric governance”. He is a professional analyst in public and health policies and a consultant to research centers in Europe and Iran. He is currently a member of the British Policy Projects Foundation, a consultant to the Supreme Council for Health and Food Security, and the High Council for Education in Iran. During the pandemic, Dr Bohloli became a consultant to the Secretary of the National Headquarters for Fighting Coronavirus (COVID-19) at MOH of IR Iran.

Hamid Reza Jamshidi

Dr Hamid Reza Jamshidi is a pharmaceutical PhD who passed his post-doctorate at Alberta University. He is currently a professor at the Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran. He has been the Director of health sector reform in the Ministry of Health (MOH), Vice deputy for health and Director of the PHC network in MOH. During the Pandemic, Dr. Jamshidi was appointed as the Secretary of the National Headquarters for Fighting Coronavirus (COVID-19) at MOH of IR Iran.

Ali Ebraze

Dr Ali Ebraze has a doctorate in health services management and he is faculty member of the Qom University of Medical Sciences and Health Services. He has more than twenty years experiences in Ministry of Health and Medical Education and has been the General Manager of Human Resources. Three years ago, he was appointed as an advisor to the Minister of Health and Medical Education in the field of structure and human resources. During COVID-19 epidemic, he was the Vice President of Qom University of Medical Sciences and Health Services. He is activate as Deputy Secretary of the COVID-19 National Headquarters of Administrating.

Fahimeh Rabbani Khah

Fahimeh Rabbanikhah is pursuing her PhD in Higher Education Management at Allameh Tabataba'i University (ATU), Tehran, Iran. Her field of interest is higher education research and studies. She has more than eighteen years experiences in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education as deputy DG for Human Resources Management. During COVID-19 epidemic, she studied the impact of disease on the human resources of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. She was actively involved in the COVID-19 National Headquarters of Administrating.