Vulnerability assessment of marine economic system based on comprehensive index and catastrophe progression model

ABSTRACT

The sustainable development of the marine economic system to accurately grasp the dynamic evolution characteristics and main driving factors of the vulnerability of the marine economic system so as to effectively identify the problems in the operation of the marine economy is extremely important. Based on the establishment of a three-level assessment index system for the vulnerability of the marine economic system, the vulnerability of the marine economic system of Jiangsu Province in 2008–2016 was evaluated by using the comprehensive index model and the catastrophe progression model, and the results were compared based on the unified evaluation criteria. The main influencing factors were analyzed by principal component analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. It’s found that 2014, 2015, and 2012 are in a general state, 2009 and 2010 are in a poor state, and the vulnerability state from 2008 to 2011 is lower than that in 2012. The overall volatility is small indicating a stable system. Among them, the scale of marine industry and profit and loss of marine resources are the main components of marine economic system vulnerability having the highest correlation with the vulnerability of marine economic system. This study enriches the theoretical method and empirical research on the vulnerability of the marine economic system and has practical significance in allowing for timely targeted control measures to affect the vulnerability of the marine economic system.

KEYWORDS:

• Marine economic system
• Vulnerability
• Comprehensive index
• Catastrophe series

Acknowledgments

The authors are very grateful to the anonymous reviewers for reading our manuscript and for providing suggestions.

Author contributions

Huihui Sun and Sheng Gao is the co-first author of this article. Sheng Gao proposed the research framework and drafted the paper. Huihui Sun worked on the analysis, interpretation of results, and the discussion. Further revision was carried out by Miaosen Ma, Yanyan Lu, and Yuan Yao. Professor Wei Liu directed the research work, proofread and polished the full text. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Jiangsu Social Science Fund [Research on temporal and spatial differentiation of vulnerability of marine economic system and its driving factors 19GLC013]; Youth teacher research and development project of Nanjing Audit University [Selection and construction of evaluation index system for marine resources development 19QNPY019].