Russian patronage over Abkhazia and South Ossetia: implications for conflict resolution

ABSTRACT

This article applies the concepts of linkage and leverage as developed by Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way and elaborated by Gwendolyn Sasse in the introduction to this special issue of East European Politics to Russia’s involvement with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the two quasi-independent states in the South Caucasus. Through this re-conceptualisation of the developments in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, combined with new empirical insights, the article aims to increase our understanding of the conflicts in the region, of the involvement of the Russian Federation in particular, and consequently of the prospects of international conflict resolution. Compared to other political entities in the former Soviet Union, Abkhazia and South Ossetia represent an extreme case of Russian linkage and leverage. This article focuses on the period after the Russian–Georgian war in 2008, when Russia recognised the regions’ independence and effectively turned them into Russian protectorates. The economic, intergovernmental, technocratic and social linkages between Russia and the two regions are extraordinarily deep, and they directly undermine the autonomy of the regions. The post-war delegation of Russian cadres and institutional and legislative diffusion creates additional linkages underpinning Russian leverage.

KEYWORDS:

• Authoritarianism
• conflict
• Russia
• transition

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributors

Andre W.M. Gerrits is Professor of International Studies and Global Politics at the Institute for History of Leiden University.

Max Bader is Assistant-Professor of Russian Studies at the Institute for History of Leiden University.

Notes

1. See http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-reuro.nsf/348bd0da1d5a7185432569e700419c7a/be2d70933881fb75c32579270040e8a1.

2. See http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/ab/ab_ru_relations/ab_rus_projects/.

3. These agreements can be found at http://www.mid.ru/spd_md.nsf/twowebcantr?openview&RestrictToCategory=%D0%90%D0%91%D0%A5%D0%90%D0%97%D0%98%D0%AF and http://www.mid.ru/spd_md.nsf/twowebcantr?openview&RestrictToCategory=%D0%AE%D0%96%D0%9D%D0%90%D0%AF%20%D0%9E%D0%A1%D0%95%D0%A2%D0%98%D0%AF.

4. The agreements can be found at http://www.mid.ru/BDOMP/spd_md.nsf/0/945AD6B8157EAEE144257C3C003D349B and http://www.mid.ru/BDOMP/spd_md.nsf/0/7F53CA428C3CC37B44257C3C003D349D.

5. The treaties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia can be consulted at http://kremlin.ru/supplement/4783 and http://kremlin.ru/supplement/4819.

6. See http://www.newsru.com/finance/19jul2013/sosetiarumoney.html.

7. Information available at http://www.abkhaziagov.org/.

8. Information available at http://cominf.org/persons.

9. About Sanakoyev, see http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/202525/. About Logua, see http://www.abkhaziagov.org/firstpersons/vicepresident.

10. See http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/perepis_itogi1612.htm.

11. The constitutions of Abkhazia, Russia and South Ossetia can be found at, respectively http://apsnypress.info/constitution, http://www.constitution.ru/, and http://cominf.org/en/node/1127818105.

12. The law of Abkhazia on parliamentary elections can be found at http://apsnypress.info/docs/3442.html. The law of Abkhazia on presidential elections can be found at http://apsnypress.info/docs/3443.html. The general electoral law of South Ossetia can be found at http://cominf.org/node/1166489241, while its laws on parliamentary and presidential elections can be found at https://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/154259/ and http://cominf.org/node/1156937977, respectively.

13. 2006 amendments to the Russian law on political parties raised the number of members required for registration from 10,000 to 50,000. Subsequent amendments adopted in 2012 lowered the number to 500.

14. The laws on political parties of Abkhazia and South Ossetia can be found at http://apsnypress.info/docs/144.html (Abkhazia) and http://cik.ruo.su/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=69:--q--q&catid=36:zakonodatelstvo&Itemid=57 (South Ossetia).

15. On a scale between 1 and 7, 1 indicating the highest degree of political rights. The Freedom in the World index can be consulted at http://www.freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world#.UuAVWRA1iHs.