![Sample our Bioscience journals, sign in here to start your access, Latest two full volumes FREE to you for 14 days]({"type":"image" , "src" : "/sda/5925/TOC-Subject-Sample-2021-Bioscience.jpg"})
Abstract
Pertussis remains a challenging public health problem with many aspects of infection, disease and immunity poorly understood. Initially controlled by mass vaccination, pertussis resurgence has occurred in some countries with well-established vaccination programs, particularly among adolescents and young adults. Several studies have used mathematical models to investigate drivers of pertussis epidemiology and predict the likely impact of different vaccination strategies. We reviewed a number of these models to evaluate their suitability to answer questions of public health importance regarding optimal vaccine scheduling. We critically discuss the approaches adopted and the impact of chosen model structures and assumptions on study conclusions. Common limitations were a lack of contemporary, population relevant data for parameterization and a limited understanding of the relationship between infection and disease. We make recommendations for future model development and suggest epidemiologic data collections that would facilitate efforts to reduce uncertainty and improve the robustness of model-derived conclusions.
Abbreviations:
- S, susceptible compartment
- I, infectious compartment
- R, removed/immune compartment
- E, infected but not yet infectious compartment
- W, waned immunity compartment
- λ or FOI, force of infection
- WAIFW, who acquires infection from whom
- US, United States
- AIC, Akaike information criterion
- POLYMOD, European Union funded project
- UK, United Kingdom
- WHO, World Health Organization
Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest
No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.
Funding
Patricia Campbell was the recipient of an Australian Postgraduate Award during this study. James McCaw is supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT110100250). Jodie McVernon is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Career Development Fellowship.