Prediction of infection caused by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae: development of a clinical decision-making nomogram

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to assess the population at risk of infection by extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing organisms, using clinical criteria.

Materials and methods: All urine cultures positive for Enterobacteriaceae in a Spanish hospital department from January 2010 to 2014 were reviewed. All isolates with ESBL-positive strains were collected, and isolates received during the first week of each month with ESBL-negative strains from symptomatic patients hospitalized or admitted to the emergency room. Multivariate analysis of the factors involved was undertaken and a nomogram developed to predict the probability of infection by ESBL-producing microorganisms.

Results: The study included 1524 patients with urinary tract infection (UTI): 416 ESBL-positive and 1108 ESBL-negative. In univariate analysis, risk factors were: male gender (p = 0.036), age (p < 0.0001), nursing home (p < 0.0001), previous antimicrobial therapy (p < 0.0001) or hospitalization (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p < 0.0001), chronic renal insufficiency (p < 0.0001), severe underlying disease (p < 0.0001), neoplasia (p = 0.0005), urological (p < 0.0001) and non-urological invasive procedure (p = 0.0003), recurrent UTI (p < 0.0001), urological (p < 0.0001) or abdominal surgery (p < 0.0001) and permanent urethral catheter (p < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, the data set was split into a development cohort of 1067 patients and a validation cohort of 457 cases. A nomogram was developed to predict the probability of infection by ESBL-producing bacteria, which included seven variables: age (p < 0.0001), gender (p = 0.004), nursing home (p < 0.0001), previous antimicrobial therapy (p = 0.04) or hospitalization (p < 0.0001), recurrent UTI (p < 0.0001) and non-urological invasive procedure (p = 0.005). The discriminative accuracy was 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.77–0.83).

Conclusions: A nomogram was developed that predicts the risk of infection by ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae with reasonable accuracy. It could improve clinical decision making and enable more efficient empirical treatment.

Keywords:

• Antibiotic resistance
• ESBL-producing pathogens
• nomogram
• urinary tract infections

Disclosure statement

The authors have no conflicts of interest associated with the eventual publication of the article and have nothing to disclose. J.F. Dorado is affiliated to Análisis Estadísticos PerTICA SL.