‘Is global warming affecting the weather?’ Evidence for increased attribution beliefs among coastal versus inland US residents

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, researchers studying public beliefs about global warming have turned to the question of whether individuals have begun to perceive changes to their local climate conditions and to what extent they attribute these changes to the phenomenon of global warming. Perceptions of particular types of extreme events, i.e. extreme heat and droughts, have attracted the most attention, whereas the possible effects of place (such as proximity to coastal areas vulnerable to sea-level rise) on public beliefs about the link between changes to weather patterns and global warming have been largely neglected. This study matches geo-located responses to a nationally representative survey of US residents with climate extremes data in order to investigate the social and physical factors shaping public views about the links between global warming and extreme weather. Specifically, regional-level Climate Extremes Indices (CEI) are modelled together with individual-level socio-demographic characteristics and an indicator of coastal residence to test whether the incidence of extreme events and proximity to the coasts, net of social and economic factors, correspond to increased perceptions that global warming has affected the weather. Results indicate that coastal shoreline county residence significantly predicts individuals’ beliefs about the extent to which global warming is affecting the weather.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• risk perceptions
• coastal communities
• survey research
• climate extremes

Acknowledgements

This research utilizes data from the Climate Change in the American Mind surveys, conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication. Survey data collection was funded by 11^th Hour Project, the Energy Foundation, the Grantham Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, and the V.K. Rasmussen Foundation.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

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Notes on contributors

Matthew John Cutler

Matthew John Cutler is a sociologist with the Social Sciences Branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC). He provides analytical support to both the New England and Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Councils and is involved in the design and implementation of the Socio-economic Survey of Hired Captains and Crew in New England and Mid-Atlantic Commercial Fisheries. Matt is also an Agency Fellow with the JPB Environmental Health Fellows Program at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (https://ehfellows.sph.harvard.edu/). Prior to joining the NEFSC, he completed a postdoctoral appointment at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies where he studied public attitudes and beliefs about climate change as a member of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. His research more broadly has focused on public perceptions of climate change and other socio-environmental phenomena, such as environmental hazards and urban sprawl and development. Matt holds a BA in Political Science and Justice Studies, an MA in Justice Studies, and a PhD in Sociology from the University of New Hampshire.

Jennifer Marlon

Jennifer Marlon is a Research Scientist in the School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, and produces the Yale Climate Opinion Maps for the YPCCC. Her research focuses on the social and physical dimensions of climate change, particularly extreme weather events and past climate changes. On the social (human dimensions) side, she uses surveys, experiments, and modeling to understand how people perceive and respond to hurricanes, heat waves, and other climate-related changes. On the physical side, she uses sediment records to reconstruct and understand past environments, including changes in wildfires, vegetation, and climate. Jennifer holds a PhD and MS in Geography from the University of Oregon, and a BS from the University at Albany, State University of New York.

Peter Howe

Peter Howe has been an Assistant Professor of Human-Environment Geography at Utah State University since 2013.  His research focuses on the intersection of human perception and cognition with vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and natural hazards.  This research aims to improve the ability of individuals and communities to detect and effectively respond to environmental change.  Dr. Howe’s research also explores how spatial relationships influence risk perceptions and decision making, using methods including survey research, spatial analysis, geovisualization, and multilevel modeling. Prior to joining USU, Dr. Howe worked as a postdoctoral associate with the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies in the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.  He received his PhD in Geography from Penn State University in 2012.  He also holds an MS in Geography from Penn State, and a BA in Political Science and BS in Geography from Arizona State University.

Anthony Leiserowitz

Anthony Leiserowitz, Ph.D. is Director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and a Senior Research Scientist at the School of Forestry & Environmental Studies at Yale University. He is an expert on public opinion and public engagement with the issues of climate change and the environment. His research investigates the psychological, cultural, and political factors that influence environmental beliefs, attitudes, policy support, and behavior. He conducts research at the global, national, and local scales, including studies in the United States, China, and India. He has served as a consultant to the John F. Kennedy School of Government (Harvard University), the United Nations Development Program, the Gallup World Poll, and the World Economic Forum. He is a board member of the KR Foundation and serves as an advisor to the UN Foundation, the Ad Council, Years of Living Dangerously, and the China Center for Climate Change Communication. He is also the host of Climate Connections, a daily national radio program and podcast.