Diverse-seasons-nested-in-periods mathematical models for investigating the economic effects of supply chain planning under simultaneous seasonal fluctuations

ABSTRACT

Fluctuations of input parameters, such as demand, supply, transportation, and production, could result in uncertainty in the efficiency and responsiveness of supply chains. On the other hand, inventory warehousing is the most popular strategy to manage the mismatch between demand, supply, and production under seasonality. This paper investigates the economic benefits of seasonal planning involving seasonal inventory holding for supply chains under multiple fluctuations following several unlike seasons nested in each year. In this regard, linear mixed-integer programming models are proposed for three Scenarios, I, II, and II, which involve seasonal planning with short and long-term seasonal inventory holding, seasonal planning with short-term seasonal inventory holding, and annual planning with annual inventory holding, respectively. The model-solving results in a case study of face masks using the CPLEX solver showed the superiority of Scenario I in terms of purchasing and inventory holding costs. In addition, the sensitivity analysis results highlighted the significant impacts of inventory warehousing cost parameters’ variation on seasonal supply chain efficiency. Finally, several managerial insights are proposed based on the results of model-solving, sensitivity analysis, and stress tests.

KEYWORDS:

• Seasonal supply chain planning
• efficiency analysis
• unlike seasonal fluctuations
• short and long-term seasonal inventory
• stress test

Data and code availability statement

The corresponding input data and CPLEX codes will be shared upon request.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Ethical statement

No clinical data is used in this research.

Additional information

Funding

This research received no grant from anywhere.