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Abstract
The global temperature has increased over 1 degree since the pre-industrial period. Within the Barents Region, the increase has been ca. 2 degrees, and warming is expected to continue over the next century. Based on energy system analysis with the TIMES-VTT model on the one hand, and a literature review on the other, this study identifies how different economic sectors in the Barents Region are affected by changes in climate, and by the climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in the region. According to the results, the Barents region is likely to be strongly affected by the impacts of climate change despite high spatial variation in the impacts across the Barents region. Changing climate will have severe impacts especially on the more vulnerable sectors, societies, and local environments that have less possibility for adaptation. Political action is needed on national, regional, and municipal levels, but these levels should work together and complement each other. As adaptation is unavoidably required, it is important to highlight and suggest priority areas to national adaptation plans from the Barents region’s perspective. Moreover, collection and utilization of local knowledge in adaptation is crucial.
PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT
This paper studies how different economic sectors in the Barents Region are affected by changes in climate, and by the climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in the region during the next decades. The results show that the impacts of climate change are manifold, ranging from positive to negative, and being different from one economic sector to another. The positive impacts include, e.g., increased energy security, and the potential agricultural benefits from higher yields and growing of new crop species in areas that were previously too cold for them. There are also many possible negative impacts, e.g. the economic costs and risks due to potential damage from ice and flooding, increased occurrence of plant diseases due to warmer temperatures and higher prevalence of snow and storm damages on forests. Impacts will be especially severe on the more vulnerable sectors, societies, and local environments that have less possibility for adaptation.
Competing Interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Acknowledgements
This paper is partly based on an assessment that was carried out at VTT Ltd. during 2017 with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment and the Finnish Ministry of the Environment. The authors wish to thank the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment and the Finnish Ministry of the Environment for the funding, and the advisory group of the project for active and inspiring comments and guidance during the project. In addition, we would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers of the manuscript for their comments that greatly helped us to improve the manuscript.
correction
This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.
Notes
2. A growing season means the time period when the weather allows plants to grow. Different regions and different plants have different growing seasons.
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Laura Sokka
Dr. Laura Sokka holds a Ph.D. in environmental science and policy from the University of Helsinki. Sokka works as a Senior Scientist in the VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Ltd. She is an expert in life cycle assessment and environmental impact assessment of products and systems. Her recent work has primarily concerned environmental impacts of different renewable energy technologies, renewable energy technologies in the Arctic and the sustainability of circular economy and local energy systems. She was one of the Research Scholars in the first Fulbright Arctic Initiative Program in 2015-2016 where she studied the use of forest bioenergy in the Finnish Arctic and the advancement of renewable energy technologies in the Arctic Region. This paper is partly based on a project in which it was studied how climate change and the mitigation actions needed for implementing the Paris Agreement affect the economic activities in the Barents region by 2050. It also reflects her wider research interests on climate change impacts in the Arctic.