Impact of climate variability on rain-fed maize and sorghum yield among smallholder farmers

Abstract

Rain-fed food crop production is very sensitive to climate variability. The majority of Ethiopian population is reliant on rain-fed seasonal agriculture, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. The objective of the study was to investigate the impact of rainfall and temperature changes on maize and sorghum yields. The data were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope, correlation, and regression models. The study’s findings demonstrated that rainfall and temperature have different effects on maize and sorghum yields. The Mann-Kendall trend test has detected the presence of a significant increasing trend for both maize and sorghum yields. Though there was an upward trend, the result also suggests that maize and sorghum yields have been fluctuating more. There was a variation of 90% and 88% in maize and sorghum yield, respectively. The R-squared statistics indicated the variability of 25.21%, 1.12%, and 20.39% in maize yield was explained by its growing period rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively. Growing period rainfall and minimum temperature were positively correlated with maize and sorghum yield output, while the maximum temperature was negatively correlated. A significant association has been detected between sorghum yield and its growing period rainfall and maximum temperature. The regression model revealed that rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperatures explained 46.81%, 5.08%, and 30.18% of the variation in sorghum production, respectively. Both crops showed unpredictability as a result of rainfall and temperature changes, emphasizing the necessity for irrigated agriculture, agricultural diversification, and livelihood diversification to respond to climate variability.

Keywords:

• Agriculture
• climate variability
• rainfall
• temperature

Public Interest Statement

Climate change is a major source of concern across our planet’s environmental, social, and economic sectors. The majority of the Ethiopian population is reliant on rain-fed seasonal agriculture, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. The production of rain-fed food crops is extremely vulnerable to climate variability. Farmers can make adjustments to their farming activities and plan for adaptation ahead of time if they have access to scientifically informed data on the influence of climate on food crops. As a result, knowing the impact of climate variability on crop yield is critical for ensuring food security for Ethiopia’s rapidly growing population in the face of a changing climate.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Jimma University.

Notes on contributors

Teka Bekuma Abdisa

Teka Bekuma Abdisa, Department of Natural Resources Management, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia, the corresponding author, is a lecturer and researcher at Wollega University. Completed his Bachelor of Education (BEd) in Geography and Environmental Studies from Haramaya University, and completed his Masters of Education (MEd) in Geography and Environmental Education from Addis Ababa University. Currently a PhD student at Jimma University, working on Impacts of Climate Variability on Maize and Sorghum Productivity and Smallholder Farmers Adaptation Responses in the East Wollega Zone of Western Ethiopia for his PhD thesis.

Girma Mamo Diga

Dr. Girma Mamo, the second author, is a Senior Agro-meteorologist who works as a researcher and climate scientist in the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research's Climate and Geospatial Biometrics Directorate.

Alemayehu Regassa Tolessa

Dr. Alemayehu Regassa, the third author, is an Associate Professor at Jimma University who works as a researcher and postgraduate program coordinator in the department of Natural Resources Management.