Determinants of food price in Turkey: A Structural VAR approach

Abstract

The rise in food prices in Turkey in the post-Covid 19 period is extremely higher than the increase in the consumer price index and the social dimension of food price. This issue prompted researchers and policy makers to examine these topics. The fact that negativities which have been observed worldwide in an emerging process are making a difference also reinforces the need for more intensive investigation of food prices or policies to be followed. This trend aims to identify the global and macroeconomic factors that cause the rise in food prices in the Turkish economy. According to this purpose, In order to measure the global impact, oil prices, the global fertilizer price index, and the world food price index were included in the study. The M2 exchange rate and money supply variables were used to measure the macroeconomic impact. In this context, monthly data for the period 2003:01–2022:03 were used in the analysis using the SVAR model. Result of the analysis indicated that global and macroeconomic factors had an impact on food prices in the period under consideration. As a result of the variance decomposition, it was observed that the food price after its own collisions was more reactive with the exchange rate, respectively.

Keywords:

• Turkey
• inflation
• food price
• SVAR

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

İ̇brahim Orkun Oral

İbrahim Orkun Oral, Department of Finance and Banking, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Bilecik Sheikh Edebali University Faculty of Applied Sciences, Istanbul, Turkey, Yeşilkent street 11300 Bozüyük Bilecik, E-mail: [email protected] TEL-FAX : [phone] Avni Çakıcı, Department of Food Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, İstanbul Aydın University, Istanbul, Turkey, E-mail: HYPERLINK “mailto:[email protected]” [email protected].

Avni Çakıcı

Fatih Yıldız, Department of Food Engineering, Fatih Yildiz, Food Engineering and Biotechnology, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, E-mail: HYPERLINK “mailto:[email protected]” [email protected].

Fatih Yıldız

Mohannad Alayoubi, Department of Food Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, İstanbul Aydın University, Istanbul, Turkey, E-mail: [email protected].