The casual nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index

Abstract

In this study, the causal nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index in Ghana was investigated spanning from 1971 to 2013 using the Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study tested for unit root, ARDL bounds cointegration test, ARDL long-run elasticities, Granger causality, and Variance Decomposition Analysis using Cholesky technique. There was evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship running from fertility rate, food production index, GDP, and household final consumption expenditure to the mortality rate. There was evidence of a bidirectional causality running from household final consumption expenditure to fertility rate. Evidence from the Variance Decomposition Analysis shows that, almost 6% of future fluctuations in mortality rate are due to shocks in the food production index, while 2% of future fluctuations in mortality rate are due to shocks in fertility rate. Evidence from the study shows that the increasing levels of social determinants like Gross Domestic Product and Household final consumption expenditure will help reduce child mortality rates in Ghana. In order to reduce child mortality rates among children under-5, infants and vulnerable in Ghana, there is the need to end hunger and ensure access to safe and nutritious food.

Keywords:

• mortality rate
• fertility rate
• cointegration
• Ghana
• health econometrics
• Variance Decomposition Analysis
• Granger causality
• food production index
• health care

JEL classification:

• I11
• I12
• I18

Public Interest Statement

Five in 10 of global under-5 deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa and 45% of all under-5 deaths happen in the first 28 days of the child’s life. Causes of child mortality have been associated with nutrition and health care delivery. However, other social, economic, and environmental factors contribute to this global issue. In this case, a multidisciplinary approach towards the analysis of the causal effect of child mortality rates is important. In view of this, the study analyzes the causal nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index in Ghana using modern econometric methods like Granger causality, ARDL cointegration test, and Variance Decomposition Analysis to examine the long-run relationships between the variables of interest. The outcome of the study will serve as an informative tool for policy-makers in Ghana and set a foundation for future research in this field.

Additional information

Funding

Funding. The authors received no direct funding for this research.

Notes on contributors

Samuel Asumadu-Sarkodie

Samuel Asumadu-Sarkodie is a multidisciplinary researcher who currently studies masters in Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems at Middle East Technical University, Northern Cyprus Campus where he is also a graduate assistant in the Chemistry department. His research interest includes, but not limited to: health and nutrition, renewable energy, econometrics, energy economics, climate change, and sustainable development.

Phebe Asantewaa Owusu

Phebe Asantewaa Owusu studies masters in Sustainable Environment and Energy Systems at Middle East Technical University, Northern Cyprus Campus where she is also a graduate assistant in the Chemistry department. Her research interest includes, but not limited to: health and nutrition, proteomics, econometrics, energy economics, climate change, and sustainable development.