Comparative analysis of asymmetric impact of cashew nuts and cocoa beans exports on Ghana’s economic growth: a non-linear ARDL approach

Abstract

The study applied the newly developed Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model by Shin et al. on annual data for Ghana from 1970 to 2019. Evidence of a long-run asymmetric cointegration relationship exists between cashew nuts exports, cocoa beans exports, and economic growth. Findings further revealed both cashew nuts and cocoa beans exports have a positive impact on Ghana’s economic growth in the long-run in support of the export-led growth theory. However, the impact of cocoa bean exports is greater than that of cashew nuts exports on the economic growth of Ghana. The Granger causality test revealed the existence of a unidirectional (one-way) causality running from economic growth to both the cashew nuts and cocoa beans exports. Government and policy makers should therefore continue to encourage and promote agricultural export growth to spur the economic development of Ghana. Also, policies and measures geared towards exchange rate stability by the government and Bank of Ghana should be promulgated and implemented to propel economic growth and export expansion in Ghana.

Keywords:

• Asymmetric impact
• cashew nuts exports
• cocoa beans exports
• economic growth
• non-linear autoregressive distributed lag

REVIEWING EDITOR:

• Christian Nsiah, Baldwin Wallace University, United States

SUBJECTS:

• Economics
• Political Economy
• Finance

Acknowledgements

This manuscript was culled out of the postgraduate thesis of the Lead Author and no part of this study was funded by any agency or organization.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

Data will be made available upon reasonable request.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ibrahim Abdul-Karim

Ibrahim Abdul-Karim is a holder of a Master of Philosophy (MPhil) degree in Agricultural Economist with focus on international trade and time series forecasting.

Osman Tahidu Damba

Osman Tahidu Damba is a PhD holder in Agricultural Economics and currently a Senior Lecturer with the Department of Agricultural and Economics at the University for Development Studies (UDS), Ghana. He has researched in the area of agribusiness, climate change and international trade. He has published in peer reviewed journals supported by grants from different development agencies.