UK–Russia relations and the Brexit debate: advancing integration or mutual mistrust?

Abstract

The emphasis on the potential threat from Russia during the Brexit debate reflects the current state of political relations between the two: each is portrayed as a threat to the other’s national interests and there is a marked absence of mutual trust at the state level. This article assesses the current state of UK–Russia relations and examines the potential impact of Brexit. What are the key drivers of the relationship? What are the roots of the apparent antipathy between the two? Is Brexit really, as has been claimed, in Russia’s interest? And have Russian opinions on Brexit been influenced by its view of EU?

Keywords:

• Russia
• UK
• Brexit
• EU
• security

Notes on contributor

Dr Tracey German is a Reader in the Defence Studies Department at King's College, London. Her research focuses on Russia's relations with its neighbours, and conflict and security in the Caucasus and Caspian region.

ORCID

Tracey German http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8830-8979

Notes

1 In a speech delivered in July 2002, Putin affirmed that Russia needed to seek partners and allies who recognised the country’s national interests, but that compromise and the coordination of positions would not be made at the expense of the national interest.

2 In a speech in Moscow in 2004, Romano Prodi talked of “the shared ideals of democratic institutions, human rights, the protection of minorities and the rule of law”.

3 In 2003 BP, which had been present in Russia since 1990, agreed to merge its assets with TNK, a major Russian oil producer, forming TNK-BP, a 50–50 joint venture. BP made Russia a geographical focus, gambling on its for much of its post-2007 reserves replacement, but in 2007 the joint venture hits difficulties when the Russian natural resource minister, Yuri Trutnev, threatened to revoke some of the licences held by TNK-BP on the grounds of low production rates. The partnership was dissolved in 2013 and state-owned oil giant Rosneft acquired BP’s stake. BP now has a significant stake in Rosneft and continues to operate in Russia.

4 Media reports give the impression that incursions by Russian aircraft and naval vessels into UK airspace and coastal waters have increased dramatically, but work by Foxall demonstrates that they have remained at a fairly constant level for the past decade (2005–2015), tending to increase at times of political tension. For further details see Foxall (2015).