Armed-Group Proliferation: Origins and Consequences

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Notes

1 The most-cited databases on armed conflict compiled by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) have documented hundreds of armed groups since the Second World War. By contrast, the Carter Center and others have recorded the emergence of thousands of armed groups since the onset of the civil war in Syria alone. Add to this the number of armed groups in Libya and the total far exceeds the UCDP sum. See Therése Pettersson and Kristine Eck, ‘Organized violence, 1989–2017’, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 55, no. 4, July 2018, pp. 535–47; The Carter Center, ‘Syria Countrywide Conflict Report #2’, 20 November 2013; Brian McQuinn, ‘After the Fall: Libya’s Evolving Armed Groups’, Small Arms Survey, 2012.

2 ‘Libyan rebels claim Misrata’, Associated Press, 15 May 2011.

3 Brian McQuinn, ‘History’s Warriors: The Emergence of Revolutionary Battalions in Misrata’, in Peter Cole and Brian McQuinn (eds.), The Libyan Revolution and its Aftermath (London: Hurst, 2015), pp. 229–55.

4 Brian McQuinn, ‘Armed Groups in Libya: Typology and Roles’, Small Arms Survey Research Notes, no. 18, June 2012.

5 Anne Barnard, ‘As Syria’s Revolution Sputters, a Chaotic Stalemate’, New York Times, 27 December 2014.

6 For examples in Syria, see Jerome Drevon, ‘The Jihadi Social Movement (JSM): Between Factional Hegemonic Drive, fuelling these conflicts to the table. In certain cases, this approach may see regional powers help broker deals among the parties.

National Realities, and Transnational Ambitions’, Perspectives on Terrorism, vol. 11, no. 6, December 2017, pp. 55–62. For examples in Libya, see McQuinn, ‘History’s Warriors: The Emergence of Revolutionary Battalions in Misrata’.

7 Jenna Jordan, ‘When Heads Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation’, Security Studies, vol. 18, no. 4, December 2009, pp. 719–55.

8 Nicolas Desgrais, Yvan Guichaoua and Andrew Lebovich, ‘Unity is the exception. Alliance formation and de-formation among armed actors in Northern Mali’, Small Wars & Insurgencies, vol. 29, no. 4, August 2018, pp. 654–79.

9 McQuinn, ‘After the Fall: Libya’s Evolving Armed Groups’.

10 Eric Schmitt and Steven Lee Myers, ‘Surveillance and Coordination with NATO Aided Rebels’, New York Times, 21 August 2011.

11 McQuinn, ‘History’s Warriors: The Emergence of Revolutionary Battalions in Misrata’.

12 The Carter Center, ‘Syria Countrywide Conflict Report #2’, p. 5.

13 Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, ‘How to Start a Battalion (in Five Easy Lessons)’, London Review of Books, vol. 35, no. 4, 21 February 2013, pp. 13–14.

14 See endnote 1.