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Abstract
China’s urban agglomerations contribute 64 percent to China’s energy-related CO2 emissions and thus play a vital role in determining the future of climate change. There is little information available about city-level energy consumption and CO2 emissions; thus, we employ spatiotemporal modeling using Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Line-scan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light imagery. Our findings show that such agglomerations have in fact experienced a remarkable decline in CO2 emission intensity—from 0.43 t/thousand yuan to 0.20 t/thousand yuan between 1995 and 2013, which constitutes an average annual decline of 4.34 percent. Despite still very high CO2 intensities in western China, a convergence of CO2 intensities across the country has occurred over the last few decades. Using panel regression modeling, we analyze differences in the decline of CO2 emission intensities due to regional differences in socioeconomic variables such as economic growth, population, economic structure, population density, and characteristics of urbanization. Factors that have hampered the decline of CO2 intensities are the ongoing industrialization that demands the increase in the production of heavy industry, in infrastructure investment, and in housing stock. Key Words: CO2 emission intensity, nighttime light imagery, spatiotemporal modeling, urban agglomerations.
中国的城市集聚, 生产了中国与能源相关的二氧化碳排放的百分之六十四, 因此在决定气候变迁的未来方面扮演了重要角色。但城市层级的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的可及信息却相当稀少；因此我们运用时空模式化, 该模式化使用防卫气象卫星计画／线形扫描系统（DMSP/OLS）的夜间光影像。我们的研究发现显示, 这些集聚其实经历了二氧化碳排放密集度的明显减少——从1995年的0.43吨／千元到2013年的0.2吨／千元, 每年平均降低百分之四点三四。尽管中国西部的二氧化碳密度仍相当高, 过去数十年来仍发生了全国二氧化碳密度的聚合。我们运用面板迴归模型, 分析因诸如经济成长、人口、经济结构、人口密度与城市化特徵等社会经济变因的区域差异所导致的二氧化碳排放密度降低的差异。阻碍二氧化碳密度降低的因素是需要增加重工业生产、基础建设投资以及房地产需求的持续工业化。 关键词：二氧化碳排放密度, 夜间光影像, 时空模式化, 城市集聚。
Las aglomeraciones urbanas de China contribuyen el 64 por ciento de las emisiones chinas de CO2 relacionadas con energía, para así desempeñar un papel vital en la determinación futura del cambio climático. Hay poca información disponible acerca del consumo de energía a nivel de ciudad y de las emisiones de CO2; entonces, empleamos modelado espaciotemporal usando imágenes de luminosidad nocturna del Programa Satelital Meteorológico de la Defensa/Sistema Operacional de Escaneo en Línea (DMSP/OLS). Nuestros hallazgos muestran que de hecho tales aglomeraciones han experimentado una notable disminución en la intensidad de la emisión de CO2 ––de 0.43t/miles de yuanes a 0.20t/miles yuanes entre 1995 y 2013, lo cual constituye una declinación promedio anual de 4.34 por ciento. Pese a las intensidades de CO2 en China occidental todavía demasiado altas, una convergencia de intensidades del CO2 a través del país ha ocurrido durante las pasadas pocas décadas. Usando modelado de regresión de panel, analizamos las diferencias de la declinación de las intensidades en la emisión de CO2 debidas a diferencias regionales en variables socioeconómicas tales como crecimiento económico, población, estructura económica, densidad de población y características de la urbanización. Los factores que han dificultado la declinación en las intensidades del CO2 son la industrialización en marcha que demanda incremento en la producción de la industria pesada, en inversiones para infraestructura y en el inventario de vivienda.
Acknowledgments
We appreciate the valuable comments from the anonymous reviewers, especially the reviewer who provided very detailed suggestions to improve this article. Chuanglin Fang, Kuishuang Feng, and Klaus Hubacek Liu served as the corresponding authors for this article.
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Notes on contributors
Shaojian Wang
SHAOJIAN WANG is an Associate Professor in the School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P.R. China. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include urbanization, environmental changes, and urban geography.
Chuanglin Fang
CHUANGLIN FANG is a Professor in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, P.R. China. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include urban planning and regional development and the nexus between urbanization and the environment.
Laixiang Sun
LAIXIANG SUN is a Professor in Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include ecological economics and climate change.
Yongxian Su
YONGXIAN SU is an Associate Professor at Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, P.R. China. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include land-use change and urban planning.
Xiuzhi Chen
XIUZHI CHEN is an Associate Professor at the South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, China. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include land-use change, climate change, and geographic information systems in urban studies.
Chunshan Zhou
CHUNSHAN ZHOU is a Professor in the School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P.R. China. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include urbanization, environmental changes, and urban geography.
Kuishuang Feng
KUISHUANG FENG is an Associate Professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include ecological economics, climate change, land-use change, and input–output analysis.
Klaus Hubacek
KLAUS HUBACEK is a Professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include ecological economics and climate change.
