American Inequality Meets COVID-19: Uneven Spread of the Disease across Communities

Abstract

The United States is bearing the brunt of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The spatially uneven viral spread and community inequality will jointly bring about worse consequences. The combined effects on U.S. communities remain unclear, however. Given spatially heterogeneous compliance with the stay-at-home orders and the varying timing of local directives, the uneven spread should be further examined. In this research, we first exploited county-level data to study the spatiotemporal pattern of viral transmission by a Bayesian approach. We then examined the uneven effects of socioeconomic and demographic variables on viral transmission across U.S. counties using geographically weighted panel regressions. Our results show that, first, the early epicenters shifted from the West Coast to the East Coast with a transmission rate of over 2.5 and continued to expand into Midwestern states in May, although the spread in the majority of counties had been greatly mitigated since the middle of April. Second, increased stay-at-home behaviors reduced the transmission of COVID-19 across the United States. The effects of socioeconomic and demographic variables varied from place to place, except that high household income was more consistently associated with a reduction in viral transmission. Finally, when the order was lifted, high household income was found to increase the viral transmission in the Midwestern United States and the high unemployment rate contributed to the viral spread in the Western United States. The knowledge obtained from this study can offer new insights for the containment actions of COVID-19.

美国面临着COVID-19的挑战。病毒在空间上的不均衡传播、社区的不平等, 两者共同带来更严重的后果。然而, 对美国社区的综合影响仍不清楚。由于居家令的实行在空间上的不均衡、地方指令的不同时间, 我们应进一步审视病毒传播的不均衡性。我们首先利用县级数据, 用贝叶斯方法研究病毒传播的时空模式。然后, 利用地理加权面板回归, 分析了社会经济和人口统计变量对美国县级病毒传播的不均衡影响。结果表明：早期中心由西海岸向东海岸推移（传播率超过2.5）, 在5月份继续向中西部各州扩展, 但4月中旬以来大部分县的传播已大大减轻。其次, 居家行为的增加, 降低了COVID-19在美国的传播。社会经济和人口统计变量的影响因地而异, 而高家庭收入始终与病毒传播减少相关。最后, 取消居家令后, 高家庭收入加速了美国中西部的病毒传播, 而高失业率促进了美国西部的病毒传播。本研究为COVID-19的控制措施, 提供了新的见解。

Estados Unidos está llevando la peor parte de la enfermedad del coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). La propagación viral desigual en términos espaciales y la desigualdad comunitaria conjuntamente ocasionarán graves consecuencias. Sin embargo, los efectos combinados sobre las comunidades norteamericanas siguen siendo confusos. Dado el acatamiento espacialmente heterogéneo de las órdenes del quédense-en-casa y la variable programación del tiempo en las directivas locales, la propagación irregular debe ser examinada con más detenimiento. En esta investigación, ante todo aprovechamos los datos a nivel de condado para estudiar con enfoque bayesiano el patrón espaciotemporal de la transmisión viral. Luego examinamos los efectos desiguales de variables socioeconómicas y demográficas sobre la transmisión viral a través de los condados de los Estados Unidos usando regresiones panel geográficamente ponderadas. Nuestros resultados muestran que, primero, los epicentros iniciales cambiaron desde la Costa Oeste hacia la Costa Este, con una tasa de transmisión de más del 2.5, que siguió expandiéndose en los estados del Medio Oeste en mayo, aunque la propagación en la mayoría de los condados había sido fuertemente mitigada desde mediados de abril. Segundo, el incremento de los comportamientos de permanecer en casa redujo la transmisión del COVID-19 a través del territorio norteamericano. Los efectos de variables socioeconómicas y demográficas variaron de un lugar a otro, con la excepción de que el ingreso familiar alto estuvo asociado de modo más consistente con una disminución en la transmisión viral. Finalmente, cuando las restricciones fueron levantadas, se estableció que el ingreso familiar alto incrementaba la transmisión viral en el Medio Oeste de los Estados Unidos, y la alta tasa de desempleo contribuyó a la propagación viral en los Estados Unidos occidentales. El conocimiento obtenido con este estudio puede ofrecer nuevas perspectivas para las acciones de contención del COVID-19.

Key Words:

• COVID-19
• social vulnerability
• stay-at-home behavior
• stay-at-home order

关键词:

• COVID-19
• 社会脆弱性
• 居家行为
• 居家令。

Palabras clave:

• COVID-19
• comportamiento del quédese-en-casa
• orden del quédense-en-casa
• vulnerabilidad social

Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate insightful comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers. The authors also thank SafeGraph, Inc. (www.safegraph.com) for providing free access to the stay-at-home data.

Supplemental Material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2020.1866489

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Wei Zhai

WEI ZHAI is a PhD Candidate in the School of Landscape Architecture and Planning at the University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include urban resilience, social vulnerability, and spatial data science.

Mengyang Liu

MENGYANG LIU is a PhD Student in the Department of Architecture, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China. E-mail: [email protected]. Her research interests include quantitative spatial analysis and public health.

Xinyu Fu

XINYU FU is a Lecturer of Environmental Planning in the School of Social Sciences at the University of Waikato, Hamilton 3240, New Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include urban resilience, climate change adaptation, and planning.

Zhong-Ren Peng

ZHONG-REN PENG is a Professor in the School of Landscape Architecture and Planning at the University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611. E-mail: [email protected]. His research interests include transportation and land use planning, planning for climate change, and information technology for planning.