Crouching Bear, Hidden Dragon: “One Belt One Road” and Chinese-Russian Jostling for Power in Central Asia

Abstract

Introduction of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), part of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative in 2013 by Xi Jinping has caught a lot of attention in the academia. Much research focus has been centered on China's motives for launching OBOR and underlying strategy. However, the reactions of great powers on OBOR have remained an understudied subject. This paper explores the case of Russia's reaction to the Chinese initiative and the interplay among two great powers in Central Asia. This region is predicted to be most affected by OBOR and become more reliant on China's investment and trade, and yet the Kremlin considers it to be part of Russian historic sphere of influence. The relationship between Beijing and Moscow in Central Asia is often portrayed as adversarial. A closer study, based on set of in-depth interviews, reveals a more nuanced picture. While continuing to jostle for power and influence, the two players have developed intellectual and bureaucratic frameworks to accommodate mutual interests, including ideas of “linking up” OBOR with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The problems for realization of this vision on arise from the top-down decision making process, low involvement of business community, and China's preference to deal with states on bilateral basis as opposed to the EEU. These problems, as Central Asian case shows, can affect the realization of Beijing's grand vision for OBOR. They can also lead to increased tension between Russia and China over influence in Central Asia in the future.

Keywords:

• Chinese foreign policy
• Russian foreign policy
• Central Asia
• One Belt One Road
• Eurasian Economic Union

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Notes on contributors

Alexander Gabuev

Alexander GABUEV is a senior associate and the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Prior to joining Carnegie in 2015, he was a member of the editorial board of Kommersant Publishing House and served as deputy editor in chief of Kommersant-Vlast, one of Russia's most influential newsweeklies. Gabuev has worked as a nonresident visiting research fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (2014) and taught courses on Chinese energy policy and political culture at Moscow State University (2012–2014). He earned his MA in Chinese History from Moscow State University (2009) and MA in Finance from Higher School of Economy (2013). His research is focused on Russia's policy toward Asia, Chinese nationalism, and China's relations with its neighbors in Central Asia. His recent publications include Friends with Benefits? Russian-Chinese Relations After the Ukraine Crisis (Carnegie Moscow Center, June 2016); “Future Approaches to China” in Russian Futures: Horizon 2025 (European Union Institute for Security Studies, April 2016); “Taming the Dragon: How Can Russia Benefit from China's Financial Ambitions in the SCO?” Russia in Global Affairs (vol. 1, March, 2015); A” Soft Alliance “? (European Council for Foreign Relations, February 2015).