Keywords:
1.1 INTRODUCING CAVs
The past decade has seen substantial progress towards the development of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Accompanying the technological developments there has been much dialogue around the potential for CAVs to help solve a range of economic, social and environmental issues, such benefits being gained through, for example, greater efficiencies on the road network, increased capacities, improved safety by removing human error, and enhanced inclusivity. Throughout this book, we predominantly use the term CAVs, and do so to incorporate increasingly connected vehicles (CVs) that are common on the road network now alongside more highly automated vehicles that are beginning to emerge. This recognizes the fact that this is a broad and transitioning area of study with vehicles of all degrees of connectivity and automation, having implications for city and regional policymakers (Box 1.1).
Connected vehicles (CVs): CVs are equipped with advanced communication technologies that allow the exchange of information between the various elements of the transport system, including vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication
Autonomous vehicles (AVs): Also interchangeably known as automated, driverless or self-driving vehicles, AVs can undertake driver tasks such as steering, braking and acceleration with minimal or no human input, and are able to navigate the environment and other road users. The level of automation influences the degree of human intervention required
Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs): CAVs is a catch-all term used to describe both CVs and AVs. Whist CVs exist currently and may have no automation, automated vehicles will, by design, have some degree of connectivity built in, and therefore AVs and CAVs are terms often used interchangeably
A large number of vehicles currently on the road network have some degree of connectivity and/or automation. CVs include those with advanced communication technologies, which might include navigation and entertainment systems linked to mobile phones, in-built roadside assistance services (common in the United StatesFootnote1), and antitheft tools such as remote engine stopping and locking.Footnote2
In 2018, it was estimated that 66% of newly registered vehicles in the UK had some degree of connectivity.Footnote3 This increasing integration of the technology is partly through legislative changes driven by a desire to further increase safety. For instance, in 2018, new regulations in the European Union (EU Regulation 2015/758) were brought in mandating that the vast majority of new passenger and light vehicles must include “eCall”. This is a system that detects when a vehicle is involved in an incident and contacts the emergency services automatically.
Connectivity is also increasingly seen through more use of vehicle telematics, which are used by car manufacturers and the insurance industry to understand (and price) the risks associated with driving. Crowd-sourced data also form part of this increasing connectivity of vehicles. For instance, the use of smartphones and satnav applications, which are used to collect and distribute data on mobility, particularly with the purpose of informing on live traffic data and incidents to enable more responsive vehicle routing.
There are also growing levels of automation available in vehicles being deployed on the road network with driving automation systems taking responsibility for a greater proportion of the dynamic driving task. Such systems include autonomous emergency braking, lane-keep assist, park assist and adaptive cruise control.
As of 2018, 61% of new vehicles registered in the UK were at “Level 1” of the SAE “Levels of Driving Automation”, which indicates some degree of driver assistance, including those listed above.Footnote4 In the same way as CVs, much of these driver-assistance measures form part of requirements in new vehicles to enhance safety. For example, in 2022, the European Commission is mandating a range of safety features for new cars and vans such as advanced emergency braking systems, driver drowsiness and attention warning systems, and lane departure warning systems.Footnote5
Ultimately, it may be possible for vehicles to operate on public roads without a human driver. Some developers, such as Waymo and Cruise (passengers) and Nuro and Gatik (deliveries), are trialling such services. The commercial deployment of these vehicles at scale is likely to be part of a transformative, yet disruptive, change to the transport system. These vehicles remove the need for a driver to be in place, or allow for them to complete other tasks whilst travelling, for example, working or even exercising.
The race to introduce CAVs is akin more to a marathon than a sprint and will include a slow, transitional period with much uncertainty. This uncertainty creates a challenge for policymakers grappling with a range of issues within their boundaries.
1.2 TYPOLOGIES AND IMPACTS OF CAVs
CAVs can be divided into three groups or typologies based on their purpose.Footnote6 First, passenger transport, which includes private vehicles, but also shared-use shuttles and buses. Private passenger vehicles are where the most disruptive impact of a transition to CAVs is likely to occur, as far as built environments are concerned. As a result, much of the attention currently centres on such vehicles ().
Figure 1.1 Passenger transport: (a) Smaller autonomous shuttles are likely to feature in future transport systems. Trials of such vehicles are already underway; (b) Passenger transport will also encompass private vehicles where driver tasks are handed over to the autonomous vehicle.Source: (a) Chesky/ Shutterstock.com; (b) metamorworks/Shutterstock.com
In addition to passenger vehicles, a second typology is freight and cargo transport. This includes intercity deliveries along strategic roads such as motorways, but also intra-city movement of goods. Freight deliveries in urban areas are fraught with challenges owing to the often dense and congested network of roads. Last-mile deliveries are a particular challenge for city transport planners (exacerbated by the rapid increase in online deliveries during the Covid-19 pandemic) but also an area where CAVs may contribute effectively ().
Figure 1.2 Freight and cargo transport: (a) CAVs might come in all shapes and sizes, including this artist impression of AVs for freight deliveries; (b) Completely autonomous vehicles are already being utilized for ‘last-mile’ deliveries.
Source: (a) Chesky/Shutterstock.com; (b) Suwin/Shutterstock.com
The final typology, as outlined by Ryan Jones and colleagues at the University of Sydney,Footnote7 is precinct and facility services. This typology centres on CAVs that operate in controlled, largely closed, environments such as airports, university campuses or business districts. The vehicles might include both passenger and cargo, and they tend to travel shorter distances whilst interacting with a variety of pedestrians and other obstacles. Whilst private passenger transport is likely to post the greatest challenge for policymakers, when these typologies are considered together, the potential disruptive impact of CAVs is substantial.
It is also important to note that the arrival of CAVs does not necessarily simply mean a like-for-like replacement of non-CAVs with CAVs. An introduction of CAVs will not have a neutral effect. Some suggest that the arrival of CAVs will attract more people to private vehicles, thereby increasing traffic volumes. Others suggest that, under a shared model of ownership, numbers of vehicles will decline. There is also discussion in the literature about how CAVs might help to increase accessibility, particularly for those with mobility constraints.Footnote8 It may also prompt a rethink of how road space is used, particularly for parking and whether there are efficiencies to be gained.Footnote9
This prompts us to think about the broader impacts of increasing automation of vehicles and how this might play out in cities and regions. Dimitris Milakis and colleaguesFootnote10 framed these potential impacts under first-, second- and third-order implications, the premise being that the first-order effects of CAVs will have a knock-on effect to the second and third orders.
The authors describe these emerging as a “ripple effect”, with the first-order impacts occurring first (followed by the second and third) as the ripple moves outwards. It is important to note that these effects can happen with no time lag between them and there can be feedbacks to previous orders. This is elaborated on by the authors (p. 326): “changes in travel cost (first ripple) might influence accessibility, then subsequently location choices, land use planning, and real estate investment decisions (second ripple), which in turn could affect travel decisions (e.g. vehicle use) and traffic (first ripple)” ().
Table 1.1 Likely effects of automated driving
The effects demonstrate the wide-ranging potential impacts that CAVs are likely to have. Much of the focus in the academic and grey literatures, and within the press, has been focused on utopian visions of the widespread adoption of CAVs and the benefits they will bring. The discourse tends to be more focused on the utilitarian dimensions of CAVs, such as regulation, safety and efficiencies.
This type of focus can tend to ignore, or at least underestimate, the wider social impacts of such vehicles,Footnote11 including the effects on other road users (particularly those more vulnerable), and who benefits or who might be excluded. This is also wrapped up in a potentially long transitional period where users of non-CAVs will be forced to interact with increasingly highly automated vehicles in the same road space. Whilst for now the majority of CAVs remain at the testing phase and operate within controlled environments, there are examples where higher levels of driver assistance are currently being used on public roads but with concerning or even fatal consequences.Footnote12
This reaffirms the point that CAVs do not offer a like-for-like replacement for non-CAVs, and why it is important for local policymakers to be informed about their impacts to better plan for them.
Our intention in the Policy Expo and presented here is to provide a broader perspective on the impacts—both technological and social—of CAVs and how these might play out in local and regional environments. Whilst some towns and cities are leading the way and form part of an “early adopting” group or “testbed locations”, for the vast majority, the evidence is that there is a distinct lack of preparedness and knowledge around CAVs and their implications.Footnote13 As vehicles become increasingly connected and autonomous, these issues become ever more pertinent, and this forms the core of our Policy Expo, and which will be explored further throughout this book.
1.3 ABOUT THE POLICY EXPO
In 2020, we launched our Policy Expo with the aim of studying the current state of play with regards to the rollout of CAVs and their impact on the built environment. We had a particular focus on advancing the dialogue around how towns and cities beyond those early adopters might fare, and how CAVs might interact with other important policy agendas facing such places.
The Expo was global in scope and therefore sought to draw on evidence from a range of people and places. We recognize that the CAV field is extensive and multidimensional. The Expo therefore did not seek to be a comprehensive assessment of the CAV market and future trajectories. Several market assessments and horizon-scanning reports have been published to serve such a purpose.Footnote14 Instead, we have sought to view these developments through the lens of local policymakers and the towns and cities they represent. We are interested in what the impacts on these places might be, and how they might respond. Our work as a result has been structured around the following questions, which are addressed in this book:
How will the urban and built environment practically accommodate CAVs?
What problems might arise, and will there be “winners and losers”—if so, who and in what ways?
How will different policy agendas—across geographical scales or policy domains—align or conflict as the urban environment begins to accommodate CAVs?
Will policies promoting or accommodating CAVs help or hinder other urban agendas including, but not limited to, active travel, zero carbon, health and well-being, social and economic inclusion, and liveability?
What do best-practice policy solutions look like, and how can local and regional policymakers plan proactively?
What will national policymakers and infrastructure providers need to do? And what must be resolved locally?
1.4 OUR APPROACH
To gather evidence as part of our Policy Expo, we engaged broadly with those working across policy, practice and academia. A total of 34 participants in our project provided evidence and input, providing perspectives from Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas. Participants engaged with the Expo through a number of different channels. These included the following.
1.4.1 Call for Evidence
Recognizing our objective to hear about developments and challenges from a range of people and places, we launched a global Call for Evidence (CfE) in 2021, which ran from January to May. This CfE sought detailed submissions from policymakers, practitioners and academics across the Expo questions outlined in the previous section.
The CfE received 10 in-depth submissions with detailed evidence and sources, including information relating to low- and middle-income countries as well as more advanced economies. These submissions highlighted several areas of concern amongst our respondents. This included public acceptance, safety, infrastructure gaps, and legislative and regulative concerns. These issues and their impacts are explored further in this book.
1.4.2 Expert interviews
We undertook 15 interviews with experts working in this field, whose work intersected with issues around CAVs. The interviews covered a range of questions relating to the Policy Expo, grouped around these three broad topics:
The accommodation of CAVs (practical considerations, time horizons, what journeys might be most affected and who stands to win/lose).
Impacts on competing policy agendas (e.g., active travel, liveability and spatial impacts).
Best-practice solutions to the above (and how these might be disseminated/communicated globally).
Interviewees are anonymised in the analysis presented in this book, but they included representatives from policy, practice and academia, who provided a range of insights that we can report on here. We sought responses internationally, reflecting our aim to examine these issues across both the Global North and Global South. Notably, we were particularly keen to include perspectives that include other road users, and the broader implications on these groups of the likely transition to CAVs.
1.4.3 Workshops
We convened two workshops at successive Regional Studies Association (RSA) Regions in Recovery Festivals (2021 and 2022) to engage academics, practitioners and policymakers in our emerging findings. This provided an opportunity for feedback and the refinement of potential policy recommendations. We also presented emerging findings at the Royal Geographical Society (RGS) Annual Conference 2021, receiving further input to guide the Policy Expo activities.
1.4.4 Literature review
In addition to our primary data collection through the CfE and expert interviews, we also undertook a review of the current literature, which feeds into the evidence presented in this book. This includes both the academic and grey literatures (including policy documents, reports and news articles).
1.4.5 Case studies
Throughout this book you will encounter several case study boxes that feature a specific CAV project or example. The purpose of these is to showcase a range of real-world examples of where and how CAVs are being deployed, and the impacts they have had. We have sought to include diverse case studies from different countries and dealing with different dimensions of CAVs. These case studies include:
Piloting autonomous shuttle buses in public transport: the case of Barkarby in Stockholm, by Kelsey Oldbury (VTI, Sweden).
AVs in Nigerian cities: environmental and policy issues, by Aliyu Kawu (Federal University of Technology, Nigeria).
Creating safe CAV services: findings from Project Endeavour (UK).
1.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE BOOK
The focus of the remainder of this short book is to provide an introduction to CAVs, and, in particular, to discuss what the implications of a transition to more highly automated vehicles are likely to be. We explore some of the key challenges facing policymakers locally and how CAVs might align or conflict with other important agendas seeking to enhance the liveability of cities. We then discuss some of the key components of the response to the arrival of CAVs and the role of local policymakers within this. Finally, we offer concluding thoughts and a series of recommendations for policymakers.
Notes
1 For example, OnStar in the United States (www.onstar.com).
2 Deng J, Yu L, Fu Y, Hambolu O and Brooks RR (2017) Security and Data Privacy of Modern Automobiles. In Chowdhury M, Apon A and Dey K (eds.), Data Analytics for Intelligent Transportation Systems, 131–163. Amsterdam: Elsevier. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-809715-1.00006-7.
3 Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (2019) Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 2019 Report: Winning the Global Race to Market. http://www.regulation.org.uk/library/2019-SMMT-Connected_and_autonomous_vehicles.pdf/.
4 Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (2019), see Reference 3.
6 Jones R, Sadowski J, Dowling R, Worrall S, Tomitsch M and Nebot E (2021) Beyond the driverless car: A typology of forms and functions for autonomous mobility. Applied Mobilities. doi:10.1080/23800127.2021.1992841.
7 Jones R et al. (2021), see Reference 6.
8 Faber K and van Lierop D (2020) How will older adults use automated vehicles? Assessing the role of AVs in overcoming perceived mobility barriers. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 133: 353–363. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2020.01.022.
9 Duarte F and Ratti C (2018) The impact of autonomous vehicles on cities: A review. Journal of Urban Technology, 25: 3–18. doi:10.1080/10630732.2018.1493883.
10 Milakis D, van Arem B and van Wee B (2017) Policy and society related implications of automated driving: A review of literature and directions for future research. Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, 21(4): 324–348, at 326. doi:10.1080/15472450.2017.1291351.
11 Bissell D, Birtchnell T, Elliott A and Hsu EL (2020) Autonomous automobilities: The social impacts of driverless vehicles. Current Sociology, 68(1): 116–134. doi:10.1177/0011392118816743.
12 See https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/16/business/tesla-autopilot-federal-safety-probe/index.html/.
13 Freemark Y, Hudson A and Zhao J (2019) Are cities prepared for autonomous vehicles? Journal of the American Planning Association, 85(2): 133–151. doi:10.1080/01944363.2019.1603760.
14 For example, see [AQ5] KPMG (2020) 2020 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index. https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/06/autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.html
15 Milakis D et al. (2017), see Reference 10.