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Abstract
We sought to estimate the impact of maternal HIV testing and prenatal care on the potential to reduce vertical transmission through zidovudine (AZT) use by HIV-infected mothers. We evaluated the prepartum maternal HIV diagnosis rate, prenatal care, disease stage, and vertical transmission rate (from a two-part mixture model) using New York State Medicaid and vital statistics data for HIV-infected mothers and their singletons in 1985-90. We used published data to estimate the effect of AZT on vertical transmission and expert input to define other parameters for the model. Our HIV-infected (N = 1514) had a vertical transmission rate of 27.0%. HIV was diagnosed prepartum for 39.5% of women in 1990. Transmission would have been 22.2% if AZT had been taken only by the subset of women diagnosed prepartum with HIV and receiving prenatal care by 34 weeks gestation (86.7%). Transmission would have dropped to 11.2% if all women had been diagnosed prepartum with HIV and received adequate prenatal care. The observed deficiencies in prenatal care and maternal HIV diagnosis rates in this Medicaid population-based cohort must be addressed to realize the promise of AZT to reduce vertical transmission.