Long Waves in Economics - Waves of Democracy

Abstract

Huntington's division into three 'waves' of democratization is now widely used in the literature. However, he offers no overall causation for the ebb and flow of democratization. Elsewhere, Hobsbawm has used long-wave economics for the basis of a wave-like pattern of modern history. Might this provide a causal explanation for waves of democratization? This article argues that the democratization process follows a wave-like pattern that closely mirrors that of long-wave economics, if exogenous transitions are allowed for. In addition, it both provides a possible causation in that differing long-term economic trends give rise to differing political movements and priorities amongst citizens and questions the validity of Huntington's 'third wave'. The article helps to explain how the different theoretical approaches to the democratization process can be explained on a historical basis. Finally, it offers an alternative schema for a wave-like democratization process and suggests that a reverse wave is not likely to be imminent.