Unemployment Fluctuations in the UK: 1958–92

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of a reduced-form unemployment equation for the UK using annual data from 1958 to 1992. It extends previous work by using modern time series econometrics, by focusing on variables that bring about fluctuations around the natural rate as well as variables that determine it, and by using a measure of sectoral reallocation purged of demand influences. The resulting equation has stable parameters which are readily interpretable in terms of the underlying theories of unemployment fluctuations.