Outcome uncertainty in sporting competition: the Olympic Games 1896–1996

Abstract

This paper examines uncertainty of outcome within the context of international sporting competition through analysing the ratio of medal winning to participating nations for the history of the Summer Olympics. A deficiency within the economics of professional team sports literature concerns the investigation into the determinants of uncertainty per se, although it has prominently featured as an explanatory factor in demand studies. Additionally, previous research on the Olympics has primarily focused upon ‘;success’ in terms of medals won or event placings. An analysis of outcome uncertainty is poignant to the Olympics given the degree of national prestige frequently placed upon success together with the policy debate in relation to their increasing scope. The relationship examined between Olympic uncertainty and a series of hypothesized factors indicates that significant determinants include the level of participation in each Olympiad, Communist-let boycotts and their overall trend.