The impact of political shocks on cointegrated exchange rate series

Abstract

This study applies cointegration tests with time-dependent dummies to assess the impact of the Gulf War on the relationship between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate using the British pound and the Japanese yen in terms of the US dollar. Cointegration of the spot and forward rate series cannot be supported for each of the exchange rates for a sample period around the Gulf War unless a five-week dummy is introduced starting in the Invasion week. The evidence is consistent with the existing literature in that it indirectly supports the long-run relationship between the spot and forward rates and confirms that short-run disruptions could occur and are consistent with the long-run relationship.