Econometrics or neural networks? – a study of marketing margins in the UK meat industry

Abstract

In the UK there is a widening gap between the farm-gate and retail prices for red meat and pork products. This study attempts to discover the reasons behind this increase by analysing the determinants that are responsible for the increasing margins. Monthly data from January 1982 to March 1996 are used as beyond this period the data are seriously distorted by the BSE scare. The predictive ability of econometrics and neural network models are compared. Although the results from econometrics were overall better it is argued that a combination of the two methods would be the ideal.