Welfare and the family size decision of low-income, two-parent families

Abstract

The effect of welfare on family size is estimated by means of an ordered probit analysis on low-income, two-parent families. A multiyear cross-sectional pooled data set derived from the US Census Bureau's Current Population Survey over the period 1979–1990 is analysed. Behavioural impacts from a range of economic variables are consistent in sign with theoretical predictions and are reasonable in magnitude. A $1000 increase in the amount of welfare per child can be expected to increase the number of children by 2.2% for such families.