Impacts of government policies, economic conditions, and past migration on net migration in the USA: 1992–93

Abstract

The determinants of net migration rates including government taxes and welfare spending for 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia during 1992–93 are examined. The weighted least squares (WLS) method is employed assuming dependent variable heteroscedasticity. Major findings indicate that net migration rates vary positively with employment growth, hourly earnings, percentage of possible sunshine, and past net migration, and they are negatively correlated with state and local tax burdens, welfare spending, violent crime, and percentage of population in the age groups of 18–24 and 24–34. Thus, Sir John Hicks's theory that migration was mainly caused by net economic advantages is confirmed. These results may have policy implications in the area of job creation, tax policy, welfare reform, the allocation of limited budget to different programmes and law enforcement.