COMPUTERIZED PROJECTION OF FUTURE HEROIN EPIDEMICS: A NECESSITY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY?

Abstract

Although U.K. has seen significant advances in knowledge since the onset of its last major heroin epidemic in the early 1980s, it is still the case that most assessments of the extent of drug misuse are based on old data. Recognition of this problem is evidenced by the many attempts elsewhere to reduce the lag between data collection and data use in such programs as DAWN, ADAM, and PULSE CHECK. Such programs are an improvement, but they are nevertheless still estimates of unknown reliability, and still about the past rather than about the future. Building on the pioneering work of Hunt and Chambers in the 1970s, the authors present the output of a computerized model that attempts to forecast the heroin epidemics of the future. [Translations are provided in the International Abstracts Section of this issue.]

• Microdiffusion
• Macrodiffusion
• Heroin epidemic
• Periodicity