Assessing Local Government Revenue Forecasting Techniques

Abstract

This article assesses revenue forecasting techniques that could be used by local governments. This study is most interested in discerning the extent of use of the causal techniques of deterministic and econometric forecasting. The data used in this study was compiled from an International City/County Managers Association (ICMA) survey of revenue forecasting techniques used by US local governments. The results indicate limited use of causal revenue forecasting of deterministic and econometric methods compared to expert and trend forecasting techniques. This finding could possibly be attributed to the lack of exposure to more advanced causal forecasting techniques that budget officers receive in US public administration programs.