Evaluating a model of forest succession using fuzzy analysis

Abstract

In this paper we discuss how to select the optimal policy from a set of possible policies for a model of forest succession, which can be characterized by a set of trees and the corresponding average life-span with each possible tree transition. The transition probabilities are estimated by counting the numbers of sapling trees of each species under a canopy tree. [1]. In our setting the transition matrix is defined by using the linguistic terms and as a consequence, the expected longevity of each tree is fuzzy. We use the Dempster–Shafer theory [8] ('76) together with techniques of Norton [7] ('88) and Smetz [9] ('76) to approximate the transition probabilities.

Keywords:

• Fuzzy sets
• Longevity
• Markov chains
• Transition probabilities
• Stationary probabilities

Acknowledgments