A Statistical Model for Shelf Life Estimation Using Sensory Evaluations Scores

Abstract

This article focuses on the problem of estimating the shelf life of food products by modeling the results coming from sensory evaluations. In such studies, trained panelists are asked to judge food attributes by reference to a scale of numbers (scores varying often from 0 to 6). The usual statistical approach for data analysis is to fit a regression line relating the scores and the time of evaluation. The estimate of the shelf life is obtained by solving the regression equation and replacing the score by a cut-off point (which indicates product “failure”) previously chosen by the food company. The procedure used in these sensory evaluations is such that one never knows the exact “time to failure”. Consequently, data arising from these studies are either right or left censored. We propose a model which incorporates these informations and assumes a Weibull for the underlying distribution of the failure time. Simulation studies were implemented. The approach was used in a real data set coming from sensory evaluations of a dehydrated food product.

Keywords:

• Left censored
• Right censored
• Sensory evaluations
• Shelf life
• Weibull distribution

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank CAPES/Brazil for the financial support of this research. Also, our sincere gratitude is extended to the anonymous referee and the associate editor whose criticism led to a substantially improved paper.