Analysis of winter and summer glacier mass balances

Abstract

Seasonal mass balance components b_w (winter balance) and b_s (summer balance) as well as c_t (total accumulation) and a_t (total ablation), can be used directly to infer climate variables. In contrast, a_c (net balance of the accumulation area) and a_a (net balance of the ablation area), and b_a or b_n (annual or net balance) can not. The traditional Alpine system of observations of a_c and a_a , however, can be converted to true seasonal values b_w and b_s if both pairs of components are simultaneously observed for some years, because a correlation between the two pairs of components exists.

We analyzed b_w and b_s data and their mean, standard deviations and ratios of these to the corresponding net or annual balances for 50 glaciers with relatively long records representing different regions in the northern hemisphere.

We also investigated correlations between seasonal components. A negative correlation between b_w and b_s exists at many glaciers. About two‐thirds of the glaciers show insignificant correlations (−0.3 < r < 0.3), implying independence of summer and winter balances. In a few unusual cases the correlations are positive. These different correlations, or lack thereof, may offer insight into feedback conditions that must exist in this climate‐related system. The correspondence of the b_w and c_t , and b_s and a_t , appears to depend largely on the relative amounts of summer snowfall, a function of their climatic environment expressed as [α = (b_w+b_s)/2]. The contribution of variability of b_s to the net balance increases markedly with decreasing values of α.

The variability of b_w and b_s , and therefore the net balance, has been increasing with time; whether this is due to an increase in climate variability or to other causes is not clear. It appears that b_w has been increasing with time at the highest altitudes, but b_s has been increasing more rapidly especially at low altitudes; the many‐glacier average net balance is becoming more negative.

Key words:

• Mass balance
• accuracy
• sample size
• statistical modelling
• White Glacier
• Abramov Glacier.