Optometric supply and demand in Australia: 2011–2036

Abstract

Background

The effective size of the optometric workforce is dependent on graduate numbers, retention rates and immigration and is influenced by age, gender and working hours of optometrists. This paper presents modelling results of the relationship between the projected Australian optometric workforce and projected demand for optometric services for the period 2011 to 2036. Nine hypothetical optometric supply‐side and demand‐side scenarios are presented.

Methods

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on age and gender of people listing optometry as their major qualification in the 2011 census were projected over a 25‐year period, accounting for factors such as concordance with Health Workforce Australia figures for registered optometrists in Australia in 2011, ageing, attrition, hours worked, new graduates and immigration. Data were compared to the numbers of optometrists calculated as necessary to meet the demand for services of the Australian population to 2036 using nine different scenarios.

Results

It was estimated that there would be a surplus of over 1,200 equivalent full‐time optometrists (EFTO) in 2036 for the highest service demand scenario of 13.8 million Medicare services, where 21-hours of a 38‐hour week per EFTO were allowed for the provision of optometric services under Medicare. Substantial surpluses were predicted in all states and territories except Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory where predicted supply was within six EFTO of predicted demand.

Conclusions

Projections using current weightings for mortality, attrition, proportion of optometrists in active practice, working hours, immigration, new graduates and 21-hours per EFTO per week available for Medicare services indicate that in 2036, there will be excess optometrists in relation to projected demand for services, if service utilisation is maintained at current levels or increased by 10 or 20 per cent. Substantially greater excesses result if each EFTO has 28 or 35-hours per week available for Medicare services.

Key words:

• Australia
• Medicare statistics
• optometrist
• population
• projection
• workforce

Supporting Information

Appendix 1 and Appendix 2 may be found in the online version of this article at the publishers' web site

Notes

a Health Workforce Australia was a Commonwealth statutory authority established by the Council of Australian Governments as a national health workforce agency. It commenced operations in January 2010. Its aim was to create a sustainable health workforce for Australia able to meet the current and future healthcare needs of all communities. HWA was abolished on May 13 2014. https://www.hwa.gov.au/about‐us/history (accessed May 13 2014).

b The National Registration and Accreditation Scheme (NRAS) for health practitioners commenced on 1 July 2010, and was established by state and territory governments through the introduction of consistent legislation in all jurisdictions, with the following aims:

1. To protect the public by ensuring that only suitably trained and qualified practitioners are registered;

2. To facilitate workforce mobility across Australia and

3. To enable continuous development of a flexible, responsive and sustainable Australian health workforce.

Optometry is one of the 14 health professions currently regulated under the NRAS.

Each profession has a National Board that regulates the profession, registers practitioners and develops standards, codes and guidelines for that profession. The Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA) administers NRAS and provides administrative support to the National Boards.

www.health.gov.au/iternet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/work‐nras (Accessed May 12 2014)

c Personal communications received from the heads of schools show that in 2011, there were 136 graduates from 3 schools; in 2012 there were 98 from two schools (no QUT graduates because of the introduction of the new five‐year program); in 2013 there were 156 from three schools. These figures suggest 45 to 52 graduates per school per year. Data from annual reports and personal communications from the then heads of schools indicate that there were approximately 122 graduates in 2004 and 107 (from two schools only) in 2005. This implies average graduating classes between 41 and 54, suggesting that increases in graduate numbers have not been driven by increases in graduating numbers from the existing schools.