The Shifting Patterns of Sectoral Labor Allocation during Development: Developed Versus Developing Countries

Abstract

The change in the partition of a country's labor force among the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors during the course of economic development has attained a quasi-law status in the development literature. Recent evidence suggests that the pattern unfolding in the developing countries has been increasingly different from that established in the past in Western Europe and North America. This paper first discusses how and why current trends have been deviating from the historically observed ones. Labor allocation and GNP per capita data from 95 countries over a twenty-year time span are then examined for temporal drift using the expansion method. Our analysis confirms the existence of temporal variation in the relationship, and yields a mathematical portrait of this drift. The temporally specific model obtained is capable of producing very plausible longitudinal patterns for a “typical”less developed and more developed country. We suggest that it is inadvisable, if not incorrect, to assume that theoretically justified relationships are universal in their application. Geographers can make an important contribution by exploring the temporal, spatial, and contextual variation of theories developed in other disciplines.

Key Words:

• agriculture
• manufacturing
• services
• labor force
• economic development
• expansion method