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Abstract
The return of several million Afghans, in the years following the complete Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in February 1989, will be one of the largest refugee repatriations in history. Refugees are a unique category of international migrants, protected and assisted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Afghan refugees, like those in other Third World regions, are caught in a complex and rapidly changing political and military environment. Over five million Afghans live in exile; three million reside in refugee camps in Pakistan near the Afghanistan border where they have formed a “refugee warrior community”fighting to retake control of their country.
This paper focuses on four repatriation variables: the number of returning refugees and displaced persons, military and public stability, infrastructural conditions, and agricultural productivity. The discussion is based on incomplete and sometimes confusing data, a common problem in extremely poor and unstable regions. Nonetheless, the use of these variables within a spatial framework underscores the influence of provincial and local conditions on repatriation, whether it takes place in Afghanistan, Mozambique or El Salvador.
Most refugees will return to Afghanistan's southern and eastern provinces; this region along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border, in comparison to northern, western and central provinces, has suffered the greatest infrastructural damage, the highest percentage of land abandonment and the most intense fighting. Numerous minefields in this region will pose a grave danger to those attempting to return in the next few years. Before large numbers of refugees begin to return, repatriation planners will need to prioritize provinces and direct resources toward areas where outside relief assistance can be of greatest benefit to refugees and residents. Subsequently, reconstruction efforts will need to focus on rebuilding villages and irrigation systems, replanting crops, and reestablishing marketing networks.