A Test for the Effect of Conformity on Crime Rates Using Voter Turnout

Abstract

Using voter turnout to measure conformity, this article examines whether conformity with social norms moderates the crime rate in the United States at the state and county levels. If people are fairly consistent in their response to the perceived local degree of conformity with norms about voting and against crime, analysis predicts a unique quadratic relationship between reported crime rates and voter turnout. A pooled multivariate regression analysis of state crime rates for several index crimes in 1960, 1970, and 1980 confirms the predicted relationship, as do county-level analyses of the violent crime rate in 1985 and 1991. This method might also be used to assess the effect of social conformity on other social choices.