Neighborhood Correalates of Homicide Trends: An Analysis Using Growth-Curve Modeling

Abstract

This research blends ideas and concepts from social disorganization theory with recent development in growth-curve methodology to examine the association between neighborhood structure and homicide levels over time. Using fifteen years of sequenctial data, we estimate growth-curve models that emphasize the effects of neighborhood socioeconomic and demographic characteristics on longitudinal trajectories of three types of homicide—general alteraction, felony, and domestic—in St. Louis from 1980–1994. The analyses reveal several important findings. First, initial levels of each homicide type are related in similar ways to the neighborhood characteristics. Second, trends for each subtype differ, with the shape of the trajectory depending on the type of homicide under consideration. Finally, the neighborhood factors associated with trends in general altercation, felony, and domestic killings vary for each type. The latter two points suggest the importance of disaggregating homicide rates and exploring the different factors that drive change in the patterns of these rates.