Comment on “Air pollution and precipitation suppression over SE Australia: critical review of evidence presented by Rosenfeld (2000) and Rosenfeld (2006)” by Greg Ayers

Abstract

Rosenfeld (2000, hereafter R00), in applying newsatellite methodology to analyse case studies in Southeastern Australia and elsewhere, provided evidence that urban and industrial air pollution can suppress precipitation from shallow clouds. He concluded that ‘Air pollution must be an important factor in determining the precipitation amounts in the Snowy Mountains’. These satellite observations were the impetus for our proposed detailed follow-on research program to further validate and quantify these inferences, publicly offered in Rosenfeld et al. (2006, hereafter R06) and repeated here, thereby recognizing the remaining large uncertainties. In response, Ayers (2009, hereafter A09) attempts to deny the significance and validity of the observations of R00. His scientific arguments are refuted here. Furthermore, A09 wrote erroneously that ‘a hypothesis that air pollution in the form of small particles has caused a secular decrease in precipitation over SE Australia was advanced by Rosenfeld (2000), who concluded that the hypothesis was proven.’ But R00 did not make such a claim, although this is a viable hypothesis that warrants testing (R06). In fact, R00 wrote: ‘trend analyses of snow, winter temperature, and total winter rainfall for the period 1910–1991 showed statistically insignificant decreases. . . (Duus, 1992)’.