On the Role of Climate Change on Wind Waves Generated by Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Hence, synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under both present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The GFDL model shows less bias in the present climate with respect to NCEP/NCAR results. Furthermore, the numerical results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate in the Caribbean Sea and Northern Gulf of Mexico, whereas some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy, as the stretch of the Gulf of Mexico between Yucatan and Southern Texas. The results have practical implications on the design of offshore structures. The 100-year design wave based on the present climate might result in under/over design of structures, owing to the lifespan of a structure that is within the future wave climate period.

Keywords:

• Tropical cyclones
• ocean waves
• Gulf of Mexico
• synthetic events
• extreme waves
• General Circulation Models
• climate change