Whither China’s Strategic Nuclear Posture? an Assessment of Existing Constraints and Prospects¹

1 I wish to thank Robert Ayson, Jim Ockey and Shaun Goldfinch as well as two anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper.

Abstract

China has been modernizing its strategic nuclear force more or less continually over the past two decades, but has not yet moved from a strategic nuclear posture of minimum deterrence to one of limited deterrence. This is due a combination of interrelated political, economic and technical constraints. But China’s increased emphasis on nuclear deterrence in the light of the 1999 Kosovo war and US national missile defense plans may overcome these constraints. This could result in an accelerated shift in China’s strategic nuclear posture by the end of the decade.

• China
• strategic nuclear posture
• national missile defense
• deterrence.

Notes

1 I wish to thank Robert Ayson, Jim Ockey and Shaun Goldfinch as well as two anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this paper.