Water dragon? China, power shifts and soft balancing in the South Pacific

Abstract

As China expands its foreign policy interests and strategic power further into the Pacific Ocean, a division is developing between Beijing’s policies in the western Pacific (around East and Southeast Asia), which have begun to assume a more assertive strategic role, and the South Pacific where China is instead seeking to engage in ‘soft balancing’ power behaviour towards American and by extension Australian and New Zealand interests there. This is being accomplished through China establishing itself as an alternative aid donor to its Melanesian and Polynesian partners and improving its diplomatic stature in the region. Although it is highly unlikely that the South Pacific will see the emergence of ‘hard’ or military power competition between China and the West, Beijing’s increased economic and diplomatic presence is beginning to have a significant impact on Western strategic thinking. These changes have prompted moves by Washington to ‘re-balance’ the region, and Australia and New Zealand to contemplate how best to engage China in what was traditionally seen as their area of interest. This would suggest that soft balancing, while non-military in nature, may nonetheless create much policy debate on shifts in state power.

• Australia
• China
• New Zealand
• soft balancing
• South Pacific
• United States