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Abstract
Currently there are three packages approved by the NRC for US domestic shipments of fissile quantities of UF6: NCI-21PF-1, UX-30, and ESP30X. For approval by the NRC, packages must be subjected to a sequence of physical tests to simulate transportation accident conditions as described in 10 CFR part 71. The primary objective of this project was to compare conditions experienced during these tests to conditions potentially encountered in actual accidents and to estimate the probabilities of such accidents. Comparison of the effects of actual accident conditions to 10 CFR part 71 tests was achieved by means of computer modelling of structural effects on the packages due to impacts with actual surfaces, and thermal effects resulting from tests and other fire scenarios. In addition, the likelihood of encountering bodies of water during transport over representative truck routes was assessed. Modelled effects and their associated probabilities, accident rates, and other characteristics gathered from representative routes were combined with existing event tree data to derive generalized probabilities of encountering accident conditions comparable to or exceeding the 10 CFR part 71 test conditions. This analysis suggests that the regulatory conditions are unlikely to be exceeded in real accidents.