Estimation of Fetal Growth and Gestation in Bowhead Whales

C. Shane Reese Shane Reese is a Technical Staff Member at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. James Calvin is Professor of Statistics at Texas A&M University, College Station. John George is a wildlife biologist at the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, Barrow, AK. Raymond Tarpley is Associate Professor of Veterinary Anatomy and Public Health at Texas A&M University, College Station. The authors thank the Eskimo whaling captains and hunters, in cooperation with the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission, for permitting the use of data from subsistence-taken whales. The authors appreciate the logistic support provided by the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, in the collection of data. The authors thank Scott Berry, Texas A&M University, Sue Moore of the National Marine Mammal Laboratory, and Judy Zeh, University of Washington, for many useful discussions. The authors thank the referees, the associate editor, and the editor for their helpful comments, which improved the content and exposition of this paper. Partial support for this project was supplied by the Texas A&M University Center for Environmental and Rural Health, which is funded by the National Institutes of Environmental Health Science through grant ES09106.

James A Calvin Shane Reese is a Technical Staff Member at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. James Calvin is Professor of Statistics at Texas A&M University, College Station. John George is a wildlife biologist at the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, Barrow, AK. Raymond Tarpley is Associate Professor of Veterinary Anatomy and Public Health at Texas A&M University, College Station. The authors thank the Eskimo whaling captains and hunters, in cooperation with the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission, for permitting the use of data from subsistence-taken whales. The authors appreciate the logistic support provided by the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, in the collection of data. The authors thank Scott Berry, Texas A&M University, Sue Moore of the National Marine Mammal Laboratory, and Judy Zeh, University of Washington, for many useful discussions. The authors thank the referees, the associate editor, and the editor for their helpful comments, which improved the content and exposition of this paper. Partial support for this project was supplied by the Texas A&M University Center for Environmental and Rural Health, which is funded by the National Institutes of Environmental Health Science through grant ES09106.

John C George Shane Reese is a Technical Staff Member at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. James Calvin is Professor of Statistics at Texas A&M University, College Station. John George is a wildlife biologist at the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, Barrow, AK. Raymond Tarpley is Associate Professor of Veterinary Anatomy and Public Health at Texas A&M University, College Station. The authors thank the Eskimo whaling captains and hunters, in cooperation with the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission, for permitting the use of data from subsistence-taken whales. The authors appreciate the logistic support provided by the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, in the collection of data. The authors thank Scott Berry, Texas A&M University, Sue Moore of the National Marine Mammal Laboratory, and Judy Zeh, University of Washington, for many useful discussions. The authors thank the referees, the associate editor, and the editor for their helpful comments, which improved the content and exposition of this paper. Partial support for this project was supplied by the Texas A&M University Center for Environmental and Rural Health, which is funded by the National Institutes of Environmental Health Science through grant ES09106.

Raymond J Tarpley Shane Reese is a Technical Staff Member at Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM. James Calvin is Professor of Statistics at Texas A&M University, College Station. John George is a wildlife biologist at the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, Barrow, AK. Raymond Tarpley is Associate Professor of Veterinary Anatomy and Public Health at Texas A&M University, College Station. The authors thank the Eskimo whaling captains and hunters, in cooperation with the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission, for permitting the use of data from subsistence-taken whales. The authors appreciate the logistic support provided by the North Slope Borough, Department of Wildlife Management, in the collection of data. The authors thank Scott Berry, Texas A&M University, Sue Moore of the National Marine Mammal Laboratory, and Judy Zeh, University of Washington, for many useful discussions. The authors thank the referees, the associate editor, and the editor for their helpful comments, which improved the content and exposition of this paper. Partial support for this project was supplied by the Texas A&M University Center for Environmental and Rural Health, which is funded by the National Institutes of Environmental Health Science through grant ES09106.

Abstract

We address estimating fetal growth and gestation for bowhead whales of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas stock. This population is subject to a subsistence hunt by Eskimo whale hunters, which is monitored via a quota system established by the International Whaling Commission. Quota determination is assisted by biological information, such as fetal growth and gestation, which is the basis of a population dynamics model used to estimate the annual replacement yield of the stock. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear model for fetal growth with computation carried out via Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Our model allows for unique conception and parturition dates and provides predictive distributions for gestation length and conception dates. These results are used to propose estimates of geographic locations for conception and parturition. A sensitivity analysis indicated caution when specifying some hyperparameters related to growth rate, conception dates, and parturition dates.

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Estimation of Fetal Growth and Gestation in Bowhead Whales

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