Local Polynomial Estimation for Sensitivity Analysis on Models With Correlated Inputs

Abstract

Sensitivity indexes when the inputs of a model are not independent are derived from local polynomial techniques. Two original estimators based on local polynomial smoothers are proposed. Both have good theoretical properties, which are illustrated through analytical examples. Comparison with the Bayesian approach developed by Oakley and O’Hagan (2004) is also performed. The two proposed estimators are used to carry out a sensitivity analysis on two real case models with correlated parameters.

Keywords:  :

• Conditional moments estimation
• Global sensitivity index
• Nonparametric regression