Does Your iPod Really Play Favorites?

Abstract

Since the introduction of the first iPod portable music player (MP3 player) by Apple, Inc., users have questioned the randomness of the shuffle feature. Most evidence cited by users claiming to show nonrandom behavior in the shuffle feature is anecdotal in nature and not based on any systematic analysis of its randomness. This article reports on our attempt to investigate the shuffle feature on the iPod and to test its randomness through the use of probability and statistical modeling. We begin by reviewing the research on people’s inability to perceive and understand both random and nonrandom behavior. Probability models are then developed, under the assumption of a random shuffle, for several of the most common types of events cited as evidence of a nonrandom shuffle. Under this null hypothesis of a random shuffle, several goodness-of-fit tests of one of the probability models are conducted using data collected from real iPods. No evidence to support user claims of a nonrandom shuffle was found. Finally, we conclude with some reflections on and ideas for incorporating these examples into undergraduate probability and statistics courses.

Keywords:  :

• Goodness-of-fit test
• Probability models
• Randomness