The Effects of Likelihood of Conviction, Threatened Punishment, and Assumed Role on Mock Plea Bargaining Decisions

Abstract

Subjects playing the roles of either innocent or guilty defendants decided whether or not to accept a plea bargain based upon three sources of information. The likelihood of conviction, the sentence if a plea bargain were accepted, and the sentence if a plea bargain were rejected were manipulated in a factorial design. The results from two data analyses (percentage of subjects accepting and a continuous firmness of decision scale) lend support to the use of an optimizing decision strategy. A main effect of each independent variable was found for both the percentage and scale data. In addition, the results indicate that "innocent" individuals may be inclined to accept a plea bargain if the conditions are right in order to cut their losses.