Prediction and Clinical Inference: Forty Years Later

Abstract

The earlier controversy between clinical and statistical prediction has faded into the shadows. Few people today challenge the necessity for both approaches in seeking to develop and apply knowledge. In more contemporary terms, the issue of which prediction method should be preferred involves choosing between a quest for historical truth (i.e., correspondence demonstrated by staristical methods) and a quest for narrative truth (i.e., coherence achieved by clinical formulations).